Last offseason, the Diamondbacks were in search of a marquee starter to pair with Zac Gallen atop their rotation. The market was thin at the top – Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani were probably never available to them, so their best options were Sonny Gray, Blake Snell, Eduardo Rodriguez, Shota Imanaga, and Jordan Montgomery. They signed two of those guys, and neither delivered the rotation-stabilizing performance they had expected. But instead of waving their hands in the air and raving at the injustice of variance, the Diamondbacks got right back on the horse:
BREAKING: Corbin Burnes to Diamondbacks, $210M, 6 years. opt out after 2 years
— Jon Heyman (@jonheyman.bsky.social) 2024-12-28T06:32:12.313Z
Corbin Burnes was the best free agent pitcher available. In each of the last five seasons, he’s been one of the top pitchers in the game, racking up a 2.88 ERA, 3.01 FIP, and 816 innings pitched. He’s second in WAR (21.7) over that time frame, second in RA9-WAR (23.2), second in strikeouts (946), and third in innings pitched. In other words, he’s been a capital-A Ace, a set-it-and-forget-it choice at the top of the starting rotation. He’ll receive $35 million a year for six seasons, with an opt-out after the second year of the deal, which also includes a $10 million signing bonus.
With Gallen also on their dance card, the Diamondbacks have one of the best one-two combinations in the majors. That doesn’t even include Merrill Kelly, a borderline All-Star when healthy, or Brandon Pfaadt, who looked like he was finally breaking out before a rough final two months of the season. Add in Montgomery and Rodriguez, and Arizona goes six deep with plausible playoff starters. That’s how you injury-proof a rotation – sheer depth.
I’m curious to see how Burnes’ career arc will play out. He burst onto the scene in 2020 with a reworked fastball and wipeout slider that powered him to gaudy strikeout totals. He’s continued to rework that cutting fastball seemingly every year, changing its shape and using it to rack up weak contact instead of to set up strikeouts. That nasty slider that served him so well is now a backup plan; rather, he leans on a big, two-plane curveball that he’ll throw in any count to any hitter.
The result of this reinvention? Burnes has transformed into a command-and-grounders pitcher instead of a short-stint strikeout artist. His 2021 Cy Young campaign covered only 167 innings; he missed a few turns that year because of illness, but also rarely worked late into the game. He’s eclipsed 190 innings in every season since then, while striking out fewer batters each year.
It’s fair to say that Burnes is no longer the electric guy he was in 2021. It’s also fair to say that he’s incredibly effective in his current form. He’s averaged roughly 4.0 WAR and a 3.00 ERA over roughly 200 innings in each of the last three years. Maybe that’s not the production of a top-five starter overall, but he’s still clearly one of the best pitchers in baseball. He turned 30 in October and doesn’t have a huge injury history or debilitating innings load. It’s reasonable to expect Burnes to carry on in a similar form for the foreseeable future.
Of course, that’s just one way things can go. Pitchers with declining strikeout rates sometimes turn into pumpkins. That’s why Burnes got Stephen Strasburg money instead of a Gerrit Cole deal. If he keeps up his recent form for the next half-decade, he’ll be a meaningful bargain for the Diamondbacks, though the opt-out limits just how great it can be from the team’s side. I’d rather have Burnes on this contract than Snell or Max Fried on the ones they signed, though all three contracts are quite similar overall. ZiPS thinks all three deals were overpays relative to model value; it would give Burnes six years and $182 million for the following projection:
ZiPS Projection – Corbin Burnes
| Year | W | L | ERA | FIP | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14 | 7 | 2.97 | 3.29 | 30 | 30 | 181.7 | 151 | 60 | 16 | 51 | 179 | 139 | 4.2 |
| 2026 | 13 | 7 | 3.09 | 3.38 | 29 | 29 | 172.0 | 148 | 59 | 16 | 48 | 165 | 134 | 3.8 |
| 2027 | 12 | 6 | 3.18 | 3.47 | 27 | 27 | 164.0 | 144 | 58 | 15 | 46 | 153 | 130 | 3.5 |
| 2028 | 11 | 7 | 3.30 | 3.60 | 26 | 26 | 152.7 | 139 | 56 | 15 | 43 | 138 | 126 | 3.1 |
| 2029 | 11 | 6 | 3.41 | 3.75 | 24 | 24 | 147.7 | 139 | 56 | 15 | 42 | 129 | 121 | 2.8 |
| 2030 | 9 | 7 | 3.62 | 3.95 | 22 | 22 | 131.7 | 129 | 53 | 15 | 39 | 111 | 114 | 2.2 |
I could write for hours about Burnes. I have, in fact, on more than a few occasions. But the most notable part of this deal to me is that Arizona is the one handing out the money. The Diamondbacks made the World Series in 2023 with a $124 million payroll. They pushed that number up last year chasing a repeat performance, and then missed the playoffs by a single game. But instead of standing pat or retreating, they’re pushing the budget up again and adding to the team.
That’s a smart decision given the way the team is constructed. The rotation is great right now, but Gallen and Kelly are free agents after this year. Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Eugenio Suárez will probably never be better than they are right now. Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno are ready to contribute to a championship team. This is the Diamondbacks’ window, and they’re acting like they know it.
Does it matter that they’re playing in the same division as the world-conquering Dodgers? I mean, I’m sure they aren’t thrilled about that, but it’s simply a fact of life at this point. The NL West is a tough division, and that isn’t going to change any time soon. So instead of pouting and punting, the Diamondbacks are doing whatever they can to keep pace with Los Angeles. Good for them!
To be clear, the Dodgers are still very much the favorites in the division. However, the Diamondbacks are now squarely the second-best club in the NL West, and that’s a fine place to be, because these days they don’t need to win the division. Heck, they don’t even need to be the best of the non-division winners, because three Wild Card teams make the playoffs. Their young core is strong enough to make a push now, and that requires outside additions. Arizona also understands that this window won’t last forever, and Burnes’ opt-outs adds to the team’s urgency to strike while the iron is hot. Sure, if Burnes pitches well, the Diamondbacks could lose him in a few years. But that’s OK — the next two seasons were always going to be their most important ones. If the opt-outs were necessary to get the deal done, then so be it.
Even better, the Diamondbacks improved their roster in a way that’s both helpful during the regular season — Burnes pitches a lot of innings — and scary in a short playoff series. They now have Burnes, Gallen, and Kelly to anchor their postseason rotation, and if Montgomery returns to his 2023 form or Pfaadt takes another step forward, one of them could leap Kelly on the depth chart and give Arizona an even better trio. Either way, the Diamondbacks are positioned to perform well in a best-of-three Wild Card series, which is probably where they’ll end up if they make the playoffs, considering, well, the Dodgers.
The hits just keep coming. The Giants were reportedly in on Burnes too, and they’re both a divisional foe and a competitor for a Wild Card berth. They have plenty of money to spend and serious pitching needs, but now there isn’t anyone they can turn to for a similar impact on their rotation. Jack Flaherty? Nick Pivetta? Burnes was the only marquee name left, so the Diamondbacks managed the rare double of improving their roster while also meaningfully limiting their competition’s options with a single signing.
Maybe it sounds like I’m too optimistic about this deal. There are, in fact, plenty of ways it can go wrong. Pitching contracts are always risky, because pitching is risky. Elbows are finicky body parts, shoulders aren’t much better, and sometimes a mile an hour of velocity is the difference between dominating and getting shelled.
But even taking all of these into account, could you find a better, more reliable pitcher than Burnes? He’s consistent, and he delivers volume. He doesn’t do it with any pitches that make you wonder how his ligaments remain attached, and he’s young enough that even if he were to miss a season with injury, he could still come back strong. Sure, I’d rather have Tarik Skubal or George Kirby going forward, but those guys weren’t available. Burnes was, and he’s not much worse than them.
No free agent deal is perfect. There are always risks that come with spending so much money on a single player. It’s costly, but it’s also necessary. So if you’re going to play the free agent market, do it like Arizona just did. Sign an elite player at his peak at precisely the moment when your team needs an elite player at his peak. If you can, sign him to a deal that could keep him around for years to come, but more than anything, make sure you have him while your competitive window is open — when your team is set up to take advantage of his contributions. Quite simply, this is one of the best fits of team and player so far this winter.
