| 2:01 |
: Hey everyone, welcome to my last chat of the year
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| 2:02 |
: 2024 was an awesome year of baseball, and I’m going to remember it quite fondly, so if you have any year in review type questions, send them my way
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| 2:03 |
: in the meantime, let’s answer some regular questions
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| 2:03 |
: should I get over it and trade Coby mayo for an SP like Cease or Castillo? Or hoard prospects and hope they work out and sign a lesser SP like Flaherty?
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| 2:03 |
: What are we doing?! Can we not trade excess from our big league roster (Mountcastle, Heston, Ramon urias) and/or prospects for pitching? Is anyone besides Jackson and basallo off limits? Who should we target?
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| 2:03 |
: Ah yes, “Here’s Ramon Urias, give me the best pitcher you can for him”
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| 2:03 |
: sadly, that wouldn’t get too far
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| 2:03 |
: I think that the O’s are in an interesting spot. The real thing I want them to do is sign some players to extensions
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| 2:04 |
: I liked their trade for Burnes, for example, and I wouldn’t hate seeing them replicate that, but one thing I feel very sure about is that they shouldn’t do half measures
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| 2:04 |
: Half of Adley’s team control is gone. 1/3 of Gunnar’s. You have a rare opportunity. The present matters
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| 2:04 |
: If Shohei pitches most of a full season at an aceish level, could he win Comeback Player of the Year the season after winning back-to-back unanimous MVPs? Seems very on-brand.
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| 2:05 |
: I know it all depends on price, but it feels like the Red Sox should double down and get Burnes, no? Saved money by trading for Crochet, multiple elite position player prospects on the cusp of the MLB. Burnes-Crochet 1-2 feels like it gets you pretty dang far in both the regular and postseason.
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| 2:05 |
: I think that they are in need of more players
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| 2:05 |
: pitcher? Bregman? Teo? I don’t have a super strong take on which option they should take
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| 2:05 |
: but this is not a great team as it is
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| 2:05 |
: Will the Yanks regret not topping the Cubs offer for Tucker? Reportedly they balked at Gil and Lombardi.
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| 2:06 |
: If that reporting is true, I think that was a big error on their part
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| 2:06 |
: they even have great evidence of how well a trade for a FA-to-be superstar can work out
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| 2:06 |
: Why is the SP market so much hotter this year than last, when Snell and Montgomery signed so late? Are teams prioritizing clear Game 1/2 playoff starters, regardless of price or age? While the pen market has been slow to develop. An interesting shift from the recent mantra to not overpay pitchers…
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| 2:07 |
: Yeah, I’m surprised. I guess we’ll have to wait for some other top hitters to sign to see whether it’s the whole market being hot or just the pitchers who have signed so far
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| 2:07 |
: In a vacuum, should the Mets (a) resign Pete, (b) sign Bregman and shift Vientos, or (c) address the void via trade (e.g., Arenado)?
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| 2:08 |
: I think I like B most of these options
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| 2:08 |
: but it depends what the market for Arenado looks like
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| 2:09 |
: Hey Ben, just wanted to let you know that you appear in the background right around the 2:30 mark of the video clip at the top of this article.
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| 2:09 |
: Hey Davy! Impressive spot
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| 2:09 |
: I wondered what kind of angle those cameras were capturing, I guess now I know
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| 2:10 |
: I feel like they were perfectly placed to cdatch the entirety of the crowd milling around
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| 2:10 |
: Only two defensive shift violations were called last season (both after manager challenges and both in the span of ~a week)–does that seem low?
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| 2:10 |
: not really… you can just look at where you’re standing, which seems to make it a lot harder to accidentally run afoul of
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| 2:10 |
: Does anyone know the rules by which team names reference a city or state? Could the As theoretically temporarily rebrand as the Sacramento As?
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| 2:10 |
: I believe they could have, becuase they chose to just be called the athletics instead of adding at eam name
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| 2:10 |
: a city name, rather
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| 2:11 |
: I love the Walk-Off feature you all added, though I’m a little sad I came one percentage point short of platinum status. Do you know how many days were covered by it? I know it’s short of a full year, and I just wanted to know how many days I didn’t visit Fangraphs?
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| 2:11 |
: I think we cut it off two Saturdays ago
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| 2:11 |
: Hey, Ben. Brent Rooker good for 50 HR’s in Sacramento? Happy holidays.
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| 2:11 |
: that is a LOT of home runs
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| 2:12 |
: more than Statcast thinks he would have hit if he played the whole season in Cincy last year
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| 2:12 |
: so I’m gonna say no. I don’t think the park is going to be the best hitter’s park in baseball or anything. Just a lot friendlier than the Coliseum
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| 2:13 |
: Kyle Tucker: set-your-watch-by-him 5 war all star, or going-forward 8 war superstud?
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| 2:13 |
: for me, the first
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| 2:13 |
: demonstrate the second before I’m willing to believe it, you know?
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| 2:14 |
: Best christmas song?
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| 2:14 |
: I have a few contenders, I’ll give my wife credit for these because I wasn’t a big Christmas song person as a kid
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| 2:15 |
: Christmas Wrapping by the Waitresses, Merry Christmas by Elton John and Ed Sheeran, Fairytale of New York by the Pogues, and the entire Sia Christmas album are my go tos
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| 2:15 |
: Red Sox don’t have a shortstop. Dbacks have two. Dbacks also need a first baseman. Who says no to a Geraldo Perdomo for Tristian Casas trade?
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| 2:15 |
: by like, a lot
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| 2:16 |
: I think Casas is just better in addition to having an extra year of control
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| 2:16 |
: Post Kyle Tucker trade: The Cubs outfield is LOADED. Do you think Bellinger/Suzuki are most likely to be moved?
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| 2:17 |
: Yes I do. Last week, Seiya’s agent mentioned that he was not interested in being a full-time DH, and that he’d specifically looked to avoid that when he signed his free agency contract
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| 2:17 |
: I think that puts them in a huge bind, tbh
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| 2:18 |
: there’s just nowhere for him to play. I think that they’re going to end up trading him, probably for not that much because it’s an awkward market for corner OF bats with some good free agents available for contending teams still
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| 2:18 |
: I’d make a move to get Kyle Tucker every time still, but they definitely need to make some more moves given current roster construction
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| 2:19 |
: as an angels fan ive been dreading a nolan areando trade. is there a trade you think could be win-win? cuz i only see disaster brewing
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| 2:19 |
: no. Arenado to the Angels only makes sense because he’s from there
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| 2:20 |
: I love that he talked about how much he wanted to win, then gave a list of teams that had a bunch of teams that eclipsed .500 and have legit WS aspirations
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| 2:20 |
: and then the Angels
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| 2:20 |
: like, you can just say you like where you’re from, that’s okay too
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| 2:20 |
: We all know the Pirates aren’t gonna offer enough dollars for teoscar/santander, the main cleanup style corner OFs in FA. Aav probably 20-30. Assuming they could afford a AAV closer to 10-20, who are some trade targets who make sense?
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| 2:20 |
: what about Seiya???
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| 2:20 |
: What are your thoughts on the Horwitz deal from the pirates POV? Solid enough leadoff hitter at 1b for a few years?
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| 2:21 |
: this is the kind of trade you make when you know you’re not going to spend any real money in FA, in my opinion
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| 2:21 |
: he’s a perfectly reasonable blah bat, if he ends up as a rotational player that’s fine
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| 2:21 |
: if you’re counting on him as one of your best hitters, you did something wrong
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| 2:21 |
: Even with Soto, the Mets still need pitching. They’ve got Senga and a bunch of question marks. Is this team really a contender without further additions?
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| 2:21 |
: I mean…. why would we expect no further additions
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| 2:22 |
: It’s December 16 and 17 of the top 50 free agents have signed
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| 2:22 |
: ‘is this team really a contender’ yeah the team that just made the NLCS, signed Juan Soto, and still has a payroll nearly 100 million lower than last year’s is a contender
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| 2:23 |
: WRT your O’s Adley window response…aren’t the Pirates in a similar spot with Skenes’ window just a few years earlier? Couldn’t the two teams match up nicely on say a (one of) Jared Jones/Mitch Keller for Coby Mayo sort of deal including other pieces to make it work?
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| 2:23 |
: I don’t really understand why the Pirates would do this
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| 2:23 |
: I mean, unless the O’s just bowled them over with value. But the O’s don’t do that. they specifically try to win every trade
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| 2:23 |
: In the case of Bellinger, can cash be conditionally added to the deal based on opt in years?
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| 2:24 |
: It can. The Arenado-to-the-Cards deal had the Rockies kicking in a different amount of cash based on whether he exercised his opt out. Similarly, the Mets had some conditional cash on Verlander’s trade to the Astros
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| 2:24 |
: What was the most impactful trade of 2024?
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| 2:24 |
: The preseason Soto trade
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| 2:24 |
: not only did it spearhead the Yankees, but it gave the Padres a head start on rebuilding their rotation, and the two combined had huge impacts in both leagues
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| 2:25 |
: What was the most surprising moment of 2024 for you? Most surprising storyline?
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| 2:25 |
: Shohei going 50/50 shocked me. I didn’t even consider him a contender for it
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| 2:25 |
: I think that the most surprising storyline for me was Skenes turning into the best pitcher in baseball (ish)
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| 2:25 |
: I was too low on him heading into the year
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| 2:25 |
: The news that the Astros are in on the Arenado sweepstakes (if that’s what we’re calling them I guess) was not surprising, but the timing seemed off with the moving Tucker directly before it came out. Any ideas on a potential return for him would be when the Cardinals move him?
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| 2:26 |
: Yeah…. honestly I could totally see this, the Astros seem to be going full thrift mode out of nowhere
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| 2:26 |
: and maybe they can get the Cardinals to eat a bunch of money, kick in some prospects, and do that
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| 2:26 |
: one thing I’m curious about is whether they think Paredes can play third
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| 2:27 |
: I think he can, and if he’s na average defender out there, I don’t quite understand the impetus to move a bunch of pieces to get Arenado
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| 2:27 |
: but if they think he’s better suited for first base, then I like it more
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| 2:27 |
: Did you get a good enough (literal) look at Andres Chaparro in his cup of coffee last season to audibly giggle at the “If Chaparro can play third base” qualifier in today’s ZIPS Nationals write up?
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| 2:27 |
: I watched a lot of Nats games in the second half of the year
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| 2:28 |
: What do you suppose is the primary reason for the Cards to move Arenado this offseason? Salary relief? Honor his desire for a winning team? There’s a chance Arenado is worth more next offseason, as his average salary is lower and maybe (?) his offense improves in 2025.
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| 2:28 |
: Yeah, salary relief and because he asked to be traded
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| 2:28 |
: The mariners seem to have put it out there that they would trade Luis Castillo for real impact, likely at 3B or 2B. Do you think that trade actually exists? It’s hard to envision prying guys like Westburg or Mayo (who might not even be 3B) from Os or Vientos from the Mets
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| 2:28 |
: Nah, I don’t see it happening
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| 2:28 |
: The Mariners could always completely change their ways, but it’s clear that they value pitching EXTREMELY highly
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| 2:29 |
: so sure, they would trade Castillo for real impact
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| 2:29 |
: but they might think real impact is like, Brice Turang + Joey Ortiz
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| 2:29 |
: Which team has the best bandwagoners to haters ratio going into 2025?
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| 2:29 |
: the Padres, maybe?
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| 2:29 |
: it’s a good question
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| 2:30 |
: I’d like to push back on the Suzuki thing… I think he is the 2nd best hitter on the team and can certainly split time with Tucker in right field. As a cubs fan I would take a lot in return like solid 3rd baseman or a top 2 starter on the rotation
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| 2:30 |
: okay, what if he tells you “I don’t want to play DH, I’m requesting a trade if I’m not going to be an outfielder”
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| 2:30 |
: I think Seiya is great, I’m consistently making dumb predictions about how good he’ll be
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| 2:30 |
: but I don’t know, they’re like a fantasy team that accidentally ended up with five first basemen
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| 2:30 |
: you can’t just go eh, it’ll work
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| 2:31 |
: I’d prefer to have all the great players on my team. but I dunno, are you gonna ask Tucker to DH? Bench Ian Happ?
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| 2:31 |
: Is it difficult to move a player like vientos from 3rd to first?
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| 2:31 |
: I don’t believe so, no
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| 2:31 |
: there aren’t a lot of examples of guys NOT being able to adapt to first
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| 2:31 |
: Why the interest in Jesus Luzardo? He’s constantly injured.
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| 2:32 |
: so, I’m with you
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| 2:32 |
: I just don’t see it. But a lot of people do
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| 2:32 |
: he has electric stuff and he’s had some good results when he can stay healthy, which is definitely infrequently
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| 2:32 |
: Do you think Bergman is beginning to decline? I’m not sold on him for the Mets if they go that way?
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| 2:32 |
: Sell me on the Yankees needing to crawl to Bregman and pay superstar money for a guy who isn’t producing like a superstar
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| 2:32 |
: alright, I guess the pitch is this
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| 2:33 |
: Bregman’s last three years: 5.4 WAR, 4.5 WAR, 4.1 WAR
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| 2:33 |
: Yankees who have hit 4.1 WAR in any of the last three years:
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| 2:33 |
: Aaron Judge (3x), Juan Soto
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| 2:34 |
: It makes no sense to keep Helsley, yes?
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| 2:34 |
: Not NO sense, but let me put it this way: I’d accept 90 cents on the dollar to trade him
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| 2:35 |
: it’s not out of the question that they’d get a better return by waiting for the deadline, and that’s interesting to me
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| 2:35 |
: but they seem serious enough about retooling that keeping a closer, and a dominant one, doesn’t really track with what I’d be trying to do
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| 2:35 |
: A real question – Are you a bigger believer in Herz, Parker, Irvin, or none of the above being a member of the next contending Nats rotation? 2026… please? I lean Herz b/c of the bat missing, even though it comes in a weird way (I think he throws one fastball at… 5 different velocities?)
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| 2:36 |
: I think it’s Herz? It’s him or Parker for me
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| 2:36 |
: I think the Rays will have huge amount of rain delays this year which will put an extra strain on all their pitchers (and likely make them underperform. Do you agree?
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| 2:36 |
: I don’t know how exactly they’re gonna handle it, but they manage to play FSL games without blowing people’s arms out
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| 2:36 |
: I think they’ll probably be able to figure it out, though I do agree that on the margin it won’t be ideal
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| 2:37 |
: Do you think Milwaukee could have gotten a better package for Williams? A deal including a top 100 prospect and other pieces?
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| 2:37 |
: I think that the deal they got is RIGHT in line with what they need
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| 2:37 |
: they struggled mightily in the rotation last year and they just cannot afford to sign people given their budget constraints
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| 2:37 |
: they’re trying to win every year
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| 2:37 |
: they seem to have a window right now, too: the Cardinals are taking a step back and the other teams haven’t quite gotten things together yet
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| 2:38 |
: “oh this guy is a top 100 prospect” is probably not as appealing to them as a complementary and pretty good prospect (Durbin) plus a rotation starter for this year
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| 2:38 |
: I like the way you characterized the Devin Williams trade, with the Brewers rotating the wheel of effective pitchers. But at some point, if you just keep staying at the same level, you’ll always get the same results. At some point, don’t they have to go all-in (or at least be additive, rather than trying to maintain status quo)?
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| 2:39 |
: Philosophical question, really
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| 2:39 |
: Would you rather get a ton of so-so bites at the apple, or go more boom-bust?
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| 2:39 |
: I remember thinking, when the Stearns era started, that his plan of not really bottoming out and trying to compete right away was novel and fun
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| 2:39 |
: I think this might be a grass is always greener situation here. I’m a big fan of taking shots when you can, and I completely agree that the Brewers refuse to do that
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| 2:40 |
: but I definitely understand their perspective
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| 2:40 |
: they really want to be competitive and bring the fans out every year
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| 2:40 |
: Thanks for all the fun in chat and on the website this year. Five things was my favorite read every week. Z Lowe would be proud
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| 2:40 |
: Thank you very much
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| 2:41 |
: 5 things is very hard to write, just because the idea generation part of it takes a very long time and the giffing isn’t automatic, but it’s also my favorite thing to write, so it works out
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| 2:41 |
: What are you looking forward to most, personally, in 2025?
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| 2:42 |
: I’m gonna limit this to baseball
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| 2:43 |
: because if not, it’s my trip to Scandinavia that I’m planning
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| 2:43 |
: but: I’m excited to see what Ohtani does back on the mound
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| 2:43 |
: and I’m very excited to see a Chapman/Adames infield in person frequently
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| 2:43 |
: Any predictions for DeGrom this year? I keep seeing stuff like he’s still a top 7 or 8 pitcher in baseball.
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| 2:44 |
: I think he’ll still be the best pitcher in baseball on a rate basis
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| 2:44 |
: I truly have no idea how to handicap his health
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| 2:44 |
: I’m going to be very excited to watch, though
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| 2:44 |
: I was worried that would be your answer, that Bregman’s “down years” are still better than anybody on the team not named Judge. I just worry they’ll have to pay him like a superstar and it will prevent them from going after Tucker in free agency because “Oops, we spent all our money!” fake austerity nonsense.
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| 2:44 |
: yeah I mean, that’s all well and good, but they cannot run the team back as is imo
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| 2:44 |
: Judge is great RIGHT NOW
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| 2:44 |
: give him some help
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| 2:45 |
: Do you think next off-season’s free agent market might be cooler with the CBA being just one year from done, or is there no causation there?
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| 2:45 |
: I think it depends on how the internal conversations are going, and also very importantly on how the tv deal fallout is looking at that point
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| 2:45 |
: Tucker put up a 180RC+ last year with good fielding and baserunning. His fluke shin injury aside, is he right up there with Soto as one of the best players at the moment?
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| 2:45 |
: well one way of looking at it is just projections. He has a 5.1 WAR projection over 672 PA. Soto is at 6.8 WAR in 686
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| 2:46 |
: Tucker’s WAR projection is 15th in baseball, so that’s definitely star level
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| 2:46 |
: And if you aren’t as bullish on the various defensive value adjustments propping people up, you could dock Cal Raleigh, Michael Harris, and William Contreras out of that list and get him to 12th
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| 2:47 |
: but let’s put it this way: in an abbreviated season, Tucker put up the best numbers of his career, by 30+ points of wRC+, and projection systems think that probably he’s not suddenly that good on a go-forward basis
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| 2:48 |
: in a full season, Soto put up the best full season of his career (not as good as 2020 on a rate basis), but by meaningfully less
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| 2:48 |
: and our projection systems think he’ll be not too far from the hitter he’s been most of his career, though they seem to like his plate discipline-driven producdtion a little more on a go-forward basis
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| 2:49 |
: either way, both are great. But the fact that SOto has 4 seasons better than Tucker’s best season, and is younger, probably means that Soto is better
|
| 2:49 |
: With a last place finish, and one of the worst farm systems, should the Jays start a fire sale and try to get some value for their top assets?
|
| 2:50 |
: If Vlad is not interested in an extension, then maybe
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| 2:50 |
: if he is: you don’t get Vlads very often, maybe pay him and keep trying to win
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| 2:50 |
: how can the cubs ‘be going all in’ per the post-Tucker trade reporting and yet still treat the CBT like a salary cap? It’s like we’re rooting for the brewers except, ya know, without the division titles.
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| 2:50 |
: No, the Brewers are way better at maximizing their roster
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| 2:51 |
: but yeah, kinda wild imo
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| 2:51 |
: Re: the what are they going to do, ask Tucker to DH/Happ to sit occasionally, comment – I guess Tucker being an upcoming FA is a wrinkle in what I’m about to say, but are we… overrating the human element there? Like, they’re handsomely paid… the Cubs should probably be able to ask them EXACTLY that lol. I feel like we also just learned from the Reds that there’s no such thing as too much depth/just let these things work themselves out because they likely will
|
| 2:51 |
: okay so, you could always try that
|
| 2:51 |
: one wrinkle is the budget element
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| 2:51 |
: and clearly the Reds weren’t in love with their experiment b/c they went ahead and traded India as soon as they didn’t have pressing injury issues
|
| 2:52 |
: but the human element matters! also they’re trying hard to re-sign Tucker and also presumably to find some contract extensions for young and good players
|
| 2:52 |
: and they’d inevitably stunt PCA’s growth by doing this
|
| 2:52 |
: one place where the Reds differed is that it was pretty obvious who needed the most playing time (Elly, McLain)
|
| 2:52 |
: and those guy shappened to be the young players
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| 2:53 |
: I think what I meant with the suzuki take was that Happ, PCA will keep their jobs with Bellinger being traded.
|
| 2:53 |
: so if they trade Bellinger, I guess things get a little easier
|
| 2:53 |
: but that’s still one of Seiya, Happ, or Tucker DH’ing a ton
|
| 2:53 |
: Bellinger to the Yankees, maybe?
|
| 2:54 |
: holy cow Cubbies. If they land Luzardo, do you think they own the NLC? How would tank them against the entire NL if they have Luzardo?
|
| 2:54 |
: Maybe I’m just a dummy, but landing Luzardo wouldn’t move the needle much for me at all
|
| 2:55 |
: I’m not a big MIchael Busch believer, and for whatever reason I can’t talk myself into Hoerner even though I think the data disagrees with me
|
| 2:55 |
: but I do think they’re co-favorites in the NLC with the Brewers
|
| 2:56 |
: Pete Alonso doesn’t have much of a market does he just return to the Mets on a Bellinger type deal?
|
| 2:56 |
: Yeah, I think that’s in the cards, although “doesn’t have much of a market” is pretty theoretical at this point
|
| 2:56 |
: Is Kerry Carpenter closer to a future star or full time platoon player?
|
| 2:56 |
: i think he’s closer to a future star
|
| 2:56 |
: I don’t think he *IS* one, necessarily
|
| 2:57 |
: but if you hit that well against righties, I’m gonna let you bat against lefties too
|
| 2:57 |
: Do you think free agent market “dollar per WAR” calculations miss the point? I get how there’s a market average, but each team’s own dollars/WAR tolerance would seem to depend on their budget + ability to develop (cheap) talent internally through the minors
|
| 2:59 |
: I actually wrote about this a few years ago
|
| 2:59 |
: Giants somehow only at $167M for next year. They gotta get Burnes and get back in the playoffs, no?
|
| 2:59 |
: I think that they should absolutely be trying to make the playoffs
|
| 3:00 |
: I think that signing Burnes makes a lot of sense, too
|
| 3:00 |
: and not just selfishly b/c I want to watch him, though also that
|
| 3:00 |
: Ginny Searle had a pretty good take at BP about the Seiya situation. If Bellinger’s moved, between Tucker backing up CF on off days for PCA, Tucker and Happ DHing once in a while, and inevitable injuries, Seiya can probably get 600ish innings in the OF even as a primary DH. It just depends on how many innings he needs to be happy.
|
| 3:00 |
: Ginny’s stuff is great, and I suppose that makes sense if they can trade Bellinger
|
| 3:01 |
: in theory, Bellinger’s market is probably not huge
|
| 3:01 |
: given that he chose to stay on a player option
|
| 3:01 |
: but maybe they can pay some down (hahahahha Cubs fans, fun joke about your team being cost-insensitive) or just let him go for nothing?
|
| 3:01 |
: Also $/war seems different for hitters and pitchers. Having one number doesn’t reflect that imo.
|
| 3:02 |
: I’ve done some checking of this in the past, and the real divide is relievers vs. other
|
| 3:02 |
: starting pitchers and hitters actually come in pretty close in the years I’ve checked
|
| 3:03 |
: On the topic of replicating the Burnes trade, could the O’s get Cease or Valdez with a package like Kjerstad, Suarez and a draft pick or 45 FV prospect? Obviously Suarez isn’t as attractive as DL Hall but he’s cheap rotation depth for a team giving up a starter and Kjerstad feels like the right level of headliner for a good rental?
|
| 3:03 |
: I think they could, that sounds like a reasonable return
|
| 3:03 |
: I think the Padres would probably do that if they like Kjerstad
|
| 3:03 |
: Is Verdugo washed already? Where does he go from here?
|
| 3:03 |
: yeah, washed imo
|
| 3:04 |
: Your thoughts on Julio Rodriguez? He’s only 23 yrs old but doesn’t seem to be a stud OF. Still room for improvement?
|
| 3:04 |
: I think we are seeing different things looking at the same guy
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| 3:04 |
: He looks like a stud OF to me
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| 3:04 |
: Will EV90 ever be added to FG?
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| 3:05 |
: it’s on our list of stuff, we de-prioritized it to focus more on getting the various stuff metrics onto the site in useful ways but I’ll bring it up again at some point b/c I really like it as a stat
|
| 3:05 |
: If I’m making a trip to AZ for Spring Training, are there certain ballparks I should prioritize visiting?
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| 3:05 |
: I’m not the most knowledgeable, Eric is better, but: I love Salt River FIelds
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| 3:05 |
: I saw Acuna hit a homer in AFL there once, it was awesome
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| 3:05 |
: saw Nicky Lopez hit a homer too, it was a much less impressive homer
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| 3:06 |
: Do you think $/WAR equals out between Def WAR and Off WAR because maybe I am wrong but I would definitely pay more for Off WAR then Def WAR
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| 3:06 |
: Yeah, this I agree with
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| 3:06 |
: I think that the market, pretty reasonably, feels offensive war is more stable
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| 3:06 |
: What’s your take on Hayden Birdsong? Giants folks seem to think he’s got another gear. Prospect hounds don’t seem so sanguine. What would you expect from the kid over the next couple years?
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| 3:07 |
: I got some free tickets to a Giants game last year through a friend and who was sitting in front of us? Birdsong’s entire family, all wearing Birdsong jerseys
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| 3:07 |
: either that or just a ton of fans who all went REALLY out of their way to get a custom jersey of a rookie making his first start
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| 3:09 |
: I think that I’d be willing to speculate on him having another gear, it’s far from a given and I understand why he wasn’t a huge, can’t miss prospect but he feels to me like one of those guys that would suddenly be much better if they could just add a little command
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| 3:09 |
: it’s no given that it’ll happen, but I like several of his pitches and his aggression. I just think the ball doesn’t go where he wants often enough for it all to work yet
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| 3:09 |
: Is it safe to assume that the Cubs aren’t even half way through their big moves?
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| 3:09 |
: in terms of number of trades, maybe
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| 3:09 |
: in terms of total impact, Tucker is going to be more than half of the total moves, so I’d say they’re more than half through
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| 3:10 |
: Over/under Angels playoff over the next ten years: 0.5
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| 3:10 |
: What do you think of the Woo rumors? The offer is apparently Woo for Casas, Luis Guerrero, and Allan Castro
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| 3:11 |
: I don’t have a great reason for this, but I’ve been a little lower than consensus on Woo
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| 3:11 |
: I don’t have a strong view on Guerrero or Castro, either
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| 3:11 |
: so I’d say I’m probably the wrong person to ask on this one… but I like Casas, and think that he’s a reasonable headliner for young pitching if the throw-ins are interesting to the team trading a pitcher
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| 3:12 |
: The Red Sox won 81 games last year and just added a key part of the equation. I see them as contenders if Anthony or Campbell turn into Jackson Merrill, and do you see them getting anything out of Giolito?
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| 3:12 |
: yeah, I think they’re contenders for sure, partiuclarly after they add one more hitter, which I think they’ll do
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| 3:14 |
: really hard to know with Giolito
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| 3:14 |
: you have to assume zero-ish given the injury timeline, but with huge error bars
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| 3:14 |
: Read a rumor that Padres were shopping Bogaerts. I’m guessing he would approve a trade back to Boston. Would a framework work around Bogaerts and cease for story, Casas and yoshida?
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| 3:14 |
: I must be missing something
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| 3:14 |
: why would the Padres do htis?
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| 3:16 |
: they’re trading the best player in the deal (Cease) and not even saving much money
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| 3:16 |
: paying MORE money in the short term
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| 3:16 |
: Story is pretty clearly worse than Bogaerts for 2025
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| 3:16 |
: Yoshida is at best a question mark
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| 3:17 |
: this trade would make the Padres a lot worse in the short term, it’d create an awkward positional logjam at first/DH, and it would involve trading a pitcher they’re hoping will get them a good prospect or pivot piece to somehow make shortstop worse?
|
| 3:18 |
: You’d expect a couple of jersey numbers to be retired if your team makes 7 straight ALCS and wins two World Series. After this latest run, anyone besides Altuve and potentially Yordan get theirs retired by the Astros?
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| 3:18 |
: like definitely him
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| 3:19 |
: maybe Verlander, he felt like a key part of those runs
|
| 3:19 |
: I’ve been big on Josh Naylor to the Giants, maybe for a couple of mid level SP prospects. Does this make sense to you?
|
| 3:19 |
: It doesn’t really, for two reasons. One, I’m just not a Naylor believer. This may or may not be rational
|
| 3:20 |
: two, I think LaMonte Wade does a lot of what he does, and arguably better
|
| 3:20 |
: but at worst, at a similar level
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| 3:21 |
: I think that the Giants would be better served to address their rotation or perhaps try to get another star outfielder to pair with Ramos flanking JHL in center
|
| 3:22 |
: and given that the farm is not wildly deep, trading meaningful pieces for a 1b/DH feels like it’s a stretch
|
| 3:22 |
: How do you think teams process the not-trading-in-the-division conventional wisdom? Tie-breaker? Demand more value? Just don’t consider it? Would love to see Suzuki in Cincinnati.
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| 3:22 |
: I think it’s a tiebreaker, or close to it
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| 3:23 |
: I could see that trade working out maybe, it really depends on what the Cubs want to do. I think that moving Bellinger would happen first most likely
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| 3:23 |
: Few things have shocked me more than the price of mediocre pitching this off-season. I thought that the Giolito deal last winter couldn’t be topped but $67 million for Severino has challenged it and this is with starters being used mostly as not much more than openers. It is crazy.
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| 3:23 |
: Severino probably got an A’s boost, but even including him, I’m with you
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| 3:23 |
: should/will the tigers make a move to consolidate talent into a 3-win player? given the abundance of young role players and lack of above-average regulars (esp in the infield), and also the money to spend on a FA if they vacate a starting roster spot, this feels like a must if they’re serious about competing
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| 3:24 |
: they should have gone nuts trying to get Kyle Tucker, and probably they did
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| 3:24 |
: ‘consolidate talent into a 3-win player’ is an admirable goal
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| 3:24 |
: maybe it’s Bo Bichette?
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| 3:25 |
: but in looking through our projections, I’m trying to think which of these guys are on the block, and eh…. Bichette, maybe Yandy Diaz who doesn’t really feel like a star, and no one else who seems likely to be on the trade block
|
| 3:26 |
: so yes, I think that they should invest in having more stars on their team, particularly via trade
|
| 3:26 |
: I just think that is a tough needle to thread
|
| 3:26 |
: on that note: time to go pick up some lunch
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| 3:26 |
: and hten back to digging through old prospect lists for a fun article I’m working on
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| 3:26 |
: have a wonderful week, everyone, and a wonderful holiday season
|
Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.
