RosterResource Chat – 11/22/24

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the first-ever RosterResource Live Chat at FanGraphs! At least one of us (usually both) will be doing this every Friday at this time.

If you’re familiar with me or Jon, I think you know that we enjoy talking about anything roster-related and will always try to give a thoughtful answer to any question. That’s not always ideal for a live chat where you want to answer as many questions as possible. But having both of us here will allow us to still do that as much as possible as we alternate answering questions.

And here we go …

Jon Becker: Hello and welcome everyone! Let’s get going with our first question…

Kate: Braves seemed to prefer Grant Holmes to a lot of these other backend rotation options throughout the second half last year.  You all are thinking that changes over the offseason?

Jon Becker: So I think this is less about Holmes in a vacuum and more about Holmes compared to Anderson and Canning (the first three rotation spots are locked in). They’re all out of options, and Holmes is the one of the three with bullpen experience, and he was great in that role last year.

Jason Martinez: Holmes earned a spot on the roster and his versatility gives the Braves a chance to explore the market during the offseason and also give their young guys a look in the spring. But seems like he’s locked in as one of their 13 pitchers.

diadem: Is Johan Rojas’ .246 BA enough to keep him playing? Platoon? vL or vR?

Jason Martinez: It was reported a few minutes ago that Austin Hays will be non-tendered so that clears things up a bit for the moment. But I don’t think the Phillies want to go into 2025 counting on Rojas for more than 300-350 PA. I think they’re going all in on Soto and, if they fall short, would still pursue another impact bat and push Rojas to 4th OF or AAA.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: What is the rule now on guaranteed money for arbitration-eligible players who are tendered contracts? If the team tenders a contract, is any money guaranteed, or can the team cut the player without penalty before arbitration? How about after arbitration — is the contract guaranteed then, and if so, how much?

Jon Becker: Great nuts and bolts question, right up my alley! If a player is tendered a contract today, then the team has to agree to a contract with him for 2025, either by agreeing by the deadline (January 10) or going to an arbitration hearing. Under the new CBA, contracts agreed to without a hearing are fully guaranteed at the point of signing, but contracts decided via hearing aren’t fully guaranteed. We saw this last year with J.D. Davis, who the Giants took to arbitration and were able to release when they signed Matt Chapman, owing him just 30 days of termination pay instead of the full contract.

drhotdog: been debating this with other angels fans – when do you think Christian Moore gets called up?  when do you think he should?

Jason Martinez: Based on how quickly they promoted Schanuel and Neto, there was speculation that Moore would get to the majors in 2024 before he got hurt. I still think they plan on being aggressive, but it’s more likely that his ETA is closer to mid-2025 now. Of course, he can change that if he’s crushing the ball in AAA.

Justin: What do you guys make of Profar’s market? Is he a lock to return to SD or do you think an org gives him a big contract?

Jon Becker: The contract predictions I’ve seen for him are just about all in the range of $45-$48 million for three years, and if that’s all it takes I think there’ll be pretty widespread interest. That said, if the Padres are right there with everyone else (not a sure thing considering their payroll) I’d be surprised if he went elsewhere.

Bill: Marte get 1st chance at 3b for reds? Or are they shopping?

Jason Martinez: I’ve already been asked about my Opening Day projection a few times … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/reds … because I have Santiago Espinal at 3B and Marte in AAA. That speaks more to Marte not doing enough to be penciled into the Opening Day roster and Espinal being the lone potential “stop-gap” if he doesn’t get non-tendered today. Maybe Jeimer plays 3B but defense is shaky. Based on that, you know what I think. They’re looking for an upgrade and, even if they still believe in Marte, will make him earn the job by putting up big numbers in AAA.

Keaton Arneson: If I could only draft one Cleveland minor leaguer SP for this season only who would it be? Nikhazy, Messick, Wilkinson, or Peterson?

Jon Becker: Unless I’ve got significant reason to believe otherwise, I always side with the high-level guy on the 40-man, which would be Nikhazy. Certainly doesn’t hurt he had a really strong season, too.

Jason Martinez: I say you have to go with the guy nicknamed “Tugboat”.

Sox Fan: Red Sox package for Crochet and/or other SP trade targets?

Jason Martinez: I think they have as good of a chance as any team out there. Sounds like they’re going to go big in free agency and don’t necessarily have a clear path for any of the “Big 4” (Mayer, Teel, Anthony, Campbell). You probably need 2 elite prospects to headline a package for Crochet and the Red Sox are one of the few teams to be able to do that and not subtract from their MLB roster.

GA Blood: The Reds said they want Steer to spend more time on the infield next year. Any pontifications on how his positional breakdown would end up looking?

Jon Becker: This ties in nicely with the Noelvi Marte question we got earlier: depending on how the offseason shakes out, it’s possible they slide Steer back to third and Marte’s got to earn playing time elsewhere. Another possibility is Matt McLain moving to the outfield, where he played some in the AFL, and Steer slotting in at second.

Jon Becker: Right now, we have almost all of Steer’s PT in left, based more on positional need: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=18

Colton: Think the Pirates start the season with Bubba on the roster? Now that they’ve lost the pick with Skenes not starting the year there

Jason Martinez: I don’t think so. Not getting the draft pick will make them think twice, but they have 5-6 good starters now … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/pirates … and I’d think they’ll just follow the same plan as Skenes in 2024. So maybe a month in AAA and see how things shake out. Of course, Jared Jones forced his way onto the Opening Day roster because of how dominant he was in spring. But I think Falter and Ortiz have earned the chance to at least start the season in the rotation.

Kate: Cards give Nootbaar another shot as an everyday guy or is he a platoon bat going forward?

Jon Becker: Nootbaar’s always more than held his own against lefties (he was actually better against them by wRC+ this year), and with 2025 being a rebuild/retool/reload/whatever you want to call it, there’s no reason to platoon him, nor is there a great platoon partner for him in the org right now anyway.

alexis anthopolous: SS is an obvious spot for improvement for the braves, and there’s plenty of Adames/Kim links, but who are some viable trade candidates?

Jason Martinez: I think the Red Sox are going big this offseason in free agency but I wonder if trading Trevor Story to clear some salary would be part of that plan. It worked out with that Chris Sale guy so maybe ATL would be interested.

Jon Becker: Jorge Mateo is another option if his elbow surgery recovery is going okay, and the Twins could well shop Carlos Correa, though they’d have to eat some cash.

Sox Fan: Where does Juan Soto land and a contact prediction?

Jon Becker: I’m on the Mets train simply because they can and presumably will offer the most money, and I don’t foresee him a discount of potentially tens of millions to go back to the Yankees. I have his contract at a very aggressive 15y/$692M, and I think he clears $600M no problem.

Jason Martinez: I agree with Jon. I think Steve Cohen is willing to outbid everyone. Whether he clears $600M or $700M will depend on how aggressive other teams will be.

Matt: What kind of contract do y’all think Hyeseong Kim gets?

Jason Martinez: My guess is 4-yr, $64M. I think he gets more than $15M per season because of how good he was in 2023. Took a step back in 2024, which is why I think it will be less than 5 years. But there are just not that many good shortstops out there and only 2 free agents. And that helps his case a lot.

Oh sorry!!! I thought you were asking about Ha-Seong!. Reading these too quickly.

Jon Becker: Yeah, I think that’s about right for Ha-seong (backloaded with an opt out since he had shoulder surgery, perhaps?), though if I need a shortstop badly on opening day I’d rather be aggressive for Adames, of course. As for Hyeseong Kim (no relation, but they did play together!), I think he does pretty similar to Ha-seong’s first MLB contract of 4y/$28M, maybe a little less since he’s got a lot less power potential.

Adam: Will the Phillies actually “shake up the roster” like they said? If so, who do you see them trading/moving?

Jon Becker: I’m sure they’d love to move Castellanos and Taijuan Walker, though moving even one of them without eating a bunch of money would be pretty miraculous, I’d say. In terms of players who would actually garner an interesting return, I think Bohm and Stott could be interesting, maybe even Ranger Suárez. The only real untouchables are probably Harper, Turner, Schwarber, Wheeler, Sánchez, Nola, Realmuto.

Insert Witty Name Here: If you were the Rox GM, how would you try to shape the roster in a 5 year time frame?

Jason Martinez: I always half-jokingly say that I would love for them to re-create the Blake Street Bombers and then I just start naming every dude that has plus-plus power (Gary Sanchez, Gallo, etc.) to add to their lineup. Even now, as a Padres fan, it seems like no lead is safe there and their lineup is not terrifying at all.

In all seriousness, I do think they are trying to build a team around young pitching and defense. They weren’t terrible at the end of last year and they do have a few young guys who are close (Dollander) and Marquez/Senzatela are back from TJ surgery.

Jon Becker: Yeah, it seems like they’re finally targeting interesting strikeout-heavy pitchers like Dollander and Brody Brecht instead of falling in love with every guy who throws a sinker. A big part of building a team like that is identifying who to give big contracts or extensions to, and they’ve had some misses there (Bryant, Szenatela, all the relievers many years ago, etc.). The Tovar extension sure looks great so far, though.

Jack: Do you think that if the Red Sox were offer Seattle a package of Duran and one of the big 4, most likely Mayer, that might finally get Dipoto to bite on trading one of his pitchers?

Jon Becker: Yeah, I’ve seen Duran-for-[insert non-Castillo starter here] bandied about as a hypothetical but I don’t think that would quite sway Dipoto to even consider that much at all. if you’re offering one guy who’s a lineup pillar right now and another who could be one as soon as midseason, I’d have a tougher time saying no.

Lawless: How quickly does Jordan Lawlar get up and can he stay at SS or move to 3B?

Jason Martinez: I think he’s the type of prospect that a team will make space for once he shows that he’s ready. Bringing Suarez back buys them some more time in case he’s not, but I can see a scenario where he takes over at SS and Perdomo moves into a bench role. Or if the Dbacks really love Perdomo too much at SS, maybe Suarez moves into more of a 1B/3B/DH role at some point and Lawlar plays 3B on most days.

mariners guy: Josh Rojas non-tender — you like?

Jon Becker: We’ve gotten a couple of questions on Rojas specifically, and he’s a good example about why the non-tender deadline being this early in the offseason makes for some tough decisions. He’s a perfectly adequate — if uninspiring — regular, but in non-tendering him now you run the risk of striking out on other options and not being able to do much better. Having Austin Shenton around helps, though, so I could see this one going either way ahead of the 8 EST deadline.

diadem: Will Rodriguez and Bart split duties in 2025? What % of playing time for each.

Jason Martinez: In case anyone doesn’t remember, Endy Rodriguez was on track to be the Pirates’ starting catcher in 2024 before injuring his elbow last winter. And he can hit! So it will be good to have him back. But with Bart looking like a very good option to play a majority of games at catcher, they can ease Rodriguez back. As long as there is some uncertainty at 1B/DH, they should have the ability to play both a lot more than some catching tandems. But I can see a 50/50 split as long as Endy is healthy with both getting DH at-bats.

Jon Becker: We just got a question in about Henry Davis and it also ties back to an earlier question about trade candidate catchers: Davis definitely is one. Could be a reverse-Joey Bart where Davis himself finds a lot more success away from Pittsburgh.

Guest: What is your assessment of the Angels’ moves this offseason so far?  They have been very active, but seemingly without any impact.

Jon Becker: This is basically the Angels’ M.O. for recent offseasons, going for names over talent, though at least with Newman, Hendricks, and d’Arnaud they’re not really taking playing time away from someone more interesting. Locking Soler in on day one of the offseason was … interesting … though.

#1MetsFan: How many ABs does Ronnie Mauricio get in 2025? O/U 200.5

Jason Martinez: I’ll go with the “over”, although I don’t think they’re going to plan their offseason around him being a big part of the team. But important to remember, prior to his injury, that he is such a good prospect that there was talk about moving him to 2B, 3B, or LF just to get him in the lineup. I think he needs to re-establish himself in AAA and then he could force himself into the picture again.

Jon Becker: I’ll take the over, only because it’s such a long season. Have a tough time seeing him crack the Opening Day roster assuming the Mets are as aggressive as we expect, though.

Jon Becker: And with that, we’re all set for this week! Thanks everyone for stopping by and we’ll see you next Friday. Wishing a Happy Thanksgiving to those who celebrate!

Jason Martinez: We’re going to wrap it up for today since Jon and I will have a busy afternoon updating rosters and payrolls once non-tenders are announced. Typically, I think 90 minutes is possible on most Fridays.

Thanks for joining us and remember that you can always send us questions on BlueSky (rosterresource.fangraphs.com / @jon-becker.com) or Twitter (@JasonRRMartinez / @jonbecker_).