The Best and Worst Baserunning Plays of the Postseason

It’s not hard to remember who had the biggest hits of the postseason, nor is it hard to remember which superstar sluggers came up short. But what about the components of offense that don’t take place at the plate? This past October had no shortage of riveting plays on the basepaths, so I thought it would be fun to look back at some of the most skillful baserunning, some of the least skillful baserunning, and either way, some of the most consequential baserunning plays of the 2024 playoffs.

To calculate baserunning value, the bright minds at Baseball Savant have developed a system that estimates runs above or below average for 10 different categories of “advance opportunities” on balls in play. There is certainly room for disagreement with the way the automatic system evaluates plays, but these numbers are a great jumping-off point. That’s especially true when it comes to bad plays, for which there is a clear delineation between the most harmful baserunning decisions and more forgivable mistakes.

Six runners ran into an out that cost their team 0.80 runs or more this postseason. No other baserunning play scored worse than -0.20 runner runs. Here’s a chart and a video compilation of those six disastrous decisions. I’ve also included Savant’s seventh-most detrimental baserunning play of the postseason for comparison:

The decisions by Bohm and Malloy to try for second, as well as third base coach Luis Rojas’ choice to wave Torres home, were all varying degrees of justifiable. That’s not to say any of them were smart plays, but it’s important to remember that getting thrown out doesn’t necessarily mean a baserunner made a mistake. A player who never gets thrown out on the bases isn’t taking enough risks.

Stanton’s out at home is at the top of the list for a reason. It was tough to watch him lumbering down the third base line in the moment, and it’s even harder to watch in hindsight when I know the outcome. It makes me feel like I’m watching a horror movie, but instead of wanting to scream at Stanton to stay out of the basement, I want to tell him to hold up no matter what Rojas was signaling. I could say the same of Perez, who is every bit as slow as Stanton. Juan Soto made a terrific throw, but all the same, third base coach Vance Wilson had no business sending Perez on that play. As for the inelegant slide into home, that’s all on Perez.

That being said, I hesitate to call either of those plays the worst example of baserunning in the postseason. For one thing, it’s clear from the clips that their coaches were more to blame. What’s more, it would be pretty boring of me to pick one of the biggest, slowest players in the game as the culprit behind the worst baserunning flub of October. So that brings me to Winker in Game 1 of the NLCS.

Here’s that play one more time:

By my count, Winker made three baserunning blunders in a very short time. His first mistake was taking too far of a turn around second base. His second mistake was realizing his first mistake and briefly turning back toward second before changing his mind once again and continuing toward third. His third mistake was giving up far too easily. He didn’t bolt for third and try to slide under Max Muncy’s tag, nor did he force the Dodgers to run him down, which might have given Jose Iglesias a chance to reach second base. Rather than putting up a fight, he basically just admitted defeat.

The Dodgers went on to win that game 9-0. Winker’s poor baserunning was hardly the only thing that did the Mets in. Still, if he’d held up at second base, it would have been the only time in the entire game the Mets had a runner in scoring position with no outs. Instead, Winker killed what little momentum the Mets almost mustered. So, of the 513 ball-in-play baserunning events that Baseball Savant scored during the playoffs, this gets my vote as the very worst of the lot.

I also went back and watched every caught stealing and pickoff play of the postseason to find the worst bit of baserunning that didn’t come on a ball in play. None of the straight-up caught stealing plays stand out to me as particularly egregious, although I made a compilation video so you can judge for yourselves. The compilation also includes Matt Vierling getting caught at second — a play that technically wasn’t considered as a stolen base attempt, presumably because it would have been officially scored a wild pitch if he were safe:

As for the pickoffs, all four look embarrassing for the baserunners. Pickoffs almost always do. Here they are, and I apologize in advance that the clip of Trevino’s pickoff on MLB Film Room is incomplete. But it’s not like you can’t extrapolate what’s going to happen. I also included Anthony Rizzo’s TOOTBLAN is Game 2 of the ALCS. Like the Vierling play, it technically wasn’t scored as a pickoff because it started with a ball in the dirt, but it’s close enough for our purposes:

The clip of Francisco Lindor is a bad look for the typically excellent baserunner. The camera shows that Lindor misread pitcher Brent Honeywell and started to take off for second base far too soon. Honeywell made him pay. Rizzo’s rundown was embarrassing, too, although after seeing the way Winker responded in a somewhat similar situation, I’ll give Rizzo credit for making a bit more of an effort.

The very worst of all those caught stealing and pickoff plays came just before Rizzo’s slip-up. Two batters earlier, Jazz Chisholm Jr. also ran into an out at second, and this one was a proper pickoff. It was the only instance out of all the caught stealing and pickoff plays I showed you in which the runner was already safely in scoring position with no outs. There was little reason for Chisholm to take such an aggressive lead toward third base. (Apparently the Yankees were planning to attempt a double steal, but Chisholm took off too early). According to Baseball Reference WPA, Chisholm’s pickoff was the most harmful caught stealing or pickoff play of the postseason (-0.076 WPA). It was also, by far, the worst caught stealing or pickoff play by championship Win Probability Added, reducing the Yankees’ chances of winning the World Series by 1.21%. And yet, I can’t blame Chisholm too much for his aggressive leads because, as you’re about to see, he was also responsible for some of the very best baserunning plays we saw this past October.

It’s significantly harder to identify the best baserunning plays than the worst. Simply put, it’s much easier to find plays in which a runner ran into an out than to separate the best advancement decisions from more commonplace ones. A runner goes from first to third on a single almost every game; when is that good baserunning as opposed to routine execution? All this to say, there aren’t any positive baserunning plays worth upwards of 0.80 runner runs on Baseball Savant. The top three plays of the postseason each added 0.25 runs of value. The next six came in at +0.24 runs. That said, these data still offer a good jumping-off point for this exercise.

I went digging for the top 10 baserunning plays on balls in play this postseason and came back with 11 due to a tie at the bottom of the list. Here are those 11 plays in chart form:

I wasn’t blown away by any of the three plays with a +0.25 run value. All three were the result of at least one defensive miscue and none involved a competitive throw. Understanding how to take advantage of poor defense is certainly a skill, as is moving fast enough to take an extra base without the defense even bothering to make a throw. Much like how the best defenders make tough plays look routine, the best baserunners can make low-percentage advancements look easy. Still, take a look at these three clips, and I’m sure you’ll forgive me for skipping past them as I try to find the best baserunning plays of the playoffs.

I was much more impressed with a few of the plays that had a +0.24 and +0.23 run value. But let’s start with the five that didn’t turn my head. Lindor made a nice slide to secure a double in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, but he was only safe because Turang couldn’t hold onto the ball to apply the tag. Meanwhile, Stott bolted his way to an RBI triple in Game 2 of the NLDS, but everyone was safe without a competitive throw.

Moving on to the NLCS, Ohtani scored from first on a Mookie Betts double in Game 1, but he did so without a throw. Indeed, the Mets pretty clearly knew he was going to score well before the ball landed in the cutoff man’s glove. Then, in Game 4 of the NLCS, Marte doubled because Betts badly misread a groundball to right field. Finally, Volpe earned 0.23 runs of baserunning credit for a double in the World Series, but he would have been out if Lux hadn’t lost the baseball. Here’s a compilation of those five plays for your viewing pleasure:

Now, let’s get to the three plays I really liked. Back in the NLDS, Lux made a great read on an Enrique Hernández single to shallow center and sprinted from first to third, beating Jackson Merrill’s throw. Meadows also made a terrific read on a pop fly in the ALDS, turning what could have been a routine out into a double. Here’s what those two plays looked like:

However, of these 11 baserunning plays, one clearly stood above the rest. Here is Chisholm scoring from second on an Alex Verdugo single in all its glory:

This was terrific television from start to end. The mind games going on between Chisholm and Michael Lorenzen were almost palpable. The footwork dance battle between Chisholm and Bobby Witt Jr. was delightful. Chisholm’s decision not to slide could have been disastrous, but instead it worked out perfectly (although the home plate umpire might disagree). And the greater context of the game only makes the play more thrilling. Chisholm was only at second base because of a controversial safe call on a stolen base earlier in the inning. The umpire on the field called him safe. The umpires in New York found the replay evidence inconclusive, even though it seemed pretty clear to the average viewer that Chisholm was out. While a less courageous baserunner might have exercised more caution after surviving by the skin of his teeth, Chisholm remained aggressive. It paid off.

According to Baseball Reference WPA, Verdugo’s single was the 10th most valuable ball in play (i.e. non-homer) of the postseason. A few of those nine other plays involved good baserunning, but there were none, I’d argue, in which good baserunning was quite as essential to the shift in win probability. Take a look for yourself. (Side note: While putting this compilation together, I learned that MLB film room won’t let you make a video with the word “balls” in the title. Seems like a design flaw.)

So, Chisholm gets my vote for the best ball-in-play baserunning play of the postseason. And that’s not all. He also provided the two most consequential stolen bases of the postseason, according to Baseball Reference WPA and cWPA. Not only that, but those two stolen bases came three pitches apart in the top of the 10th inning of Game 1 of the World Series. Another three pitches later, he scored what would have been the winning run if not for Freddie Freeman’s walk-off grand slam. Even without a compilation video of the other 60 stolen bases this October, I feel confident giving Chisholm the crown for the best stolen base sequence of the playoffs. Here’s a look at the complete series of events:

None of the plays I wrote about today will be remembered for nearly as long as Freeman’s big hits, Gerrit Cole’s valiant efforts, or the poor defense that ultimately sunk the Yankees in Game 5. But I love writing about baserunning precisely because it gets far less attention than most other aspects of the game. I’m glad I had the chance to look back on all this action on the basepaths before we all turn our attention to the offseason ahead.