Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/27/24

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chat. Apologies that it’s been a few weeks since my last one. Deadlines and summer travel will do that. Anyway, I’m currently working on a piece checking in on the seasons of the Boras Four, none of which has proceeded as planned, and on Monday I looked into Shohei Ohtani’s 40-homer, 40-steal feat, his odds of getting to 50-50 (thanks to Dan Szymborski), and some other 30-30 and 40-40 (!) candidates https://blogs.fangraphs.com/shohei-ohtani-joins-the-40-40-club-in-gran…

Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the show…

Eli: In a previous chat you mentioned how the Yankees and Gleyber need to move on from each other. Do you think Gleyber’s career is salvageable elsewhere? And from the outside is there something about how the Yankees develop young players (not named Judge) that seems broken?

Jay Jaffe: Yes, I think Torres is salvageable. He’s only 27 years old, and he’s shown the ability to play at an above-average clip as recently as last year (and he’s been better since the All-Star break, .273/.354/.406, 117 wRC+).

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think there’s anything particularly damning about the Yankees’ development of young players, even for all the shrill screeching about Anthony Volpe’s slumps. He’s put up 3.5 WAR this year despite his offensive inconsistency, and if he’s merely a plus defender with a position-average bat, that’s still a pretty solid outcome. Austin Wells has panned out nicely on both sides of the ball, Ben Rice not so much (but his stock was much lower). Peraza’s injuries have gotten in the way. Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt have been good outcomes

Who’s Fabio: Hi Jay – thank for the chat.  What happens to official stats after yesterday’s Jays – Boston game as it is a continuation of a game in June.  It was technically Chad Green’s 3rd save of the year I think so does someone have to adjust all the stats in the boxscores after?  Does Jimenez’s playing time get started in June now?

Jay Jaffe: the stats are credited to the day that the game originated, which means they’ll show up in any splits that involved that date as well. It’s a major headache here and I know it is for B-Ref as well. It does not reset a player’s service clock; it might add one service day if the player was only rostered for the continuation but not the origin.

Rob: After a horrific start to the season, both Pete Crow-Armstrong and Miguel Amaya have been torrid in the second half. If you’re the Cubs, are you comfortable going into 2025 with them as starters?

Jay Jaffe: Moreso with PCA than Amaya. So long as Cody Bellinger is a Cub — and I don’t think this is a good enough platform year to justify exercising the first of his two opt-outs — the Cubs have a good alternative in center field. They’re weak at catcher, however, and should really bring in a better player who could serve either as a backup or regular. There are a lot of those heading for free agency including Gary Sanchez and Mr. Two Teams, Danny Jansen

Dancing Dan McGrew: what’s more special – Ohtani doing the 50/50 club or Judge hitting 62 again?

Jay Jaffe: The former, as it’s unprecedented and hasn’t been closely approximated. Judge has hit 62 before; 63 or a few more than that isn’t as big a stretch. But jeez, it’s pretty damn impressive and I hope we get both feats

Sirras: What is the most exciting play in baseball and why is it the triple?

Jay Jaffe: It’s the inside-the-park home run, which is a supersized triple.

Jason N: As a Padres fan I get to watch Arraez play every night.  I love the batting average and bat-to-ball skills.  But it’s the emptiest batting average I’ve ever seen.  I think every other part of his game (baserunning, defense, power, etc.) is below average to terrible. If gets to 3k hits and a pile of batting titles could he get any serious HoF traction?

Jay Jaffe: If he gets to 3,000 hits he’ll be a Hall of Famer. But he won’t get to 3,000 hits because he lacks the secondary skills that will keep him around. A 700-OPS DH/infielder doesn’t have many places to hide once he drops a few more points of OPS.

Thank you for the chat!: What kind of offer do you give Soto if you want to keep him on the Yanks?

Jay Jaffe: Manhattan, the Bronx, and Staten Island (Queens belongs to the Mets, Brooklyn isn’t up for grabs).

Jeremy: Apologies if this has already been asked in a recent chat but: since Willie Mays passed away, who is the greatest living Hall of Famer? Mike Schmidt? Rickey Henderson?

Jay Jaffe: The Athletic’s Tyler Kepner and I had a fun text exchange where it turned out that my conclusion (Schmidt or Henderson) matched his. We both leaned Schmidt, in part because of his #1 position in JAWS at 3B (Henderson is behind Bonds and Ted Williams in LF). But I think Albert Pujols will take that spot when he becomes eligible on the 2028 ballot.

Porcho Villa: Any encouraging signs under the hood for Torkelson after his thus-far-successful-over-a-small-sample return to the majors?

Jay Jaffe: it’s only nine games but I see a higher EV and hard-hit rate, double the barrel rate as before, better walk and strikeout rates, much better slash line. It’s an encouraging start but I wouldn’t get too crazy about it yet

Almost there: Judge is .1 WAR from 50WAR7. But my question is, everyone says, barring a Chris Davis or Ryan Howard situation, yet isn’t it true that those guys were never anywhere close to as good at their best? To me a Judge decline is more partial seasons rather than hitting like those guys. Barring absolute disaster he will get himself to a peak-heavy 60 jaws around the Reggie level.

Jay Jaffe: Davis and Howard weren’t anything close to Judge. Both had prodigous power, but they were terrible first basemen, with negative value on the basepaths as well. Each had just one season worth at least 5.0 bWAR. Judge was a plus defender in right field and is adequate enough in center for the time being. He has six seasons more than 5.0 bWAR, and is pressing towards his second of at least 10.0.

Dirk Funk: The Brewers had an MLB best -0.48 ERA/FIP differential last year. This year they are tops again with a -0.61 differential. So why is Depth Charts projecting a -0.01 differential rest of season? Isn’t that maybe a little over-regressed?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know how much regression we build into that but one singe-team year-to-year example isn’t enough to convince me we’re doing it wrong.

Dirk Funk: Corbin Burnes K%+ has declined from 153 to 135 to 115 to literal average 100 so far this year. Will this push his contract closer to Nola money ($172M) than Strasburg cash ($245M)?

Jay Jaffe: it might cost him some money but i wonder if it’s a matter of self- and team-preservation. He’s averaging 3.78 pitches per plate appearance, down from 3.92 last year and 4.09 the year before, and it’s helped him maintain an innings-per start rate above 6. Orioles starters are dropping like flies; they can’t afford to lose him so maybe asking him to pitch to contact just a bit more isn’t the worst idea

Birdfan: Ryne Nelson looks good. Velocity up and visually more confident. Do you think he has front of rotation potential?

Jay Jaffe: No. He’s a command-over-stuff guy with a strikeout rate just south of 20% and a penchant for loud contact. He was projected as a fourth starter; maybe he’s a third starter if he does a better job of suppressing contact but I don’t think he has the stuff to expand his ceiling much higher.

steve: Is Chris Sale a more likely HOFer than Gerrit Cole now?

Jay Jaffe: No, because Cole is younger (though only by about 18 months)  and more importantly healthier. He actually has the edge in some counting stats (but not WAR/JAWS) and already has a Cy Young. I think he’s a better bet.

DBacks Heater: Inspired by Josh Bell’s 8 GIDP in 21 DBacks games: at what point is taking a backwards K  or starting runners early (and potentially lining into a DP) preferable when a player with such a tendency is batting? It’s crazy to complain about squandered DBacks scoring opportunities, but that’s borderline (if not outright) untenable

Jay Jaffe: the strikeouts are the most desirable of those unpalatable outcomes, but this is who Bell is. Interestingly enough, he’s just 2 runs below average in B-Ref’s Double Play Avoidance WAR component (-1 pre- and post-trade apiece).

Sirras: Are there any players you enjoy watching from an aesthetic standpoint, regardless of their on-field contributions?

Jay Jaffe: I always love to watch Francisco Lindor play shortstop, and likewise Machado and Arenado at third base (when they’re healthy). Watching Elly run the bases is always a treat. And I love just about everything about Mookie Betts’ game.

Zach: So Gavin Lux just decided to start swinging harder and trust his hand-eye, and it turned him into an elite hitter? Please tell me this is sustainable? Is anyone at Fangraphs going to write about him?

Jay Jaffe: if nobody else takes up Lux I will, one of these days. Based on what Joe Davis and colleagues have said on air (esp Orel Hershiser), I think his improvement has a whole lot to do with finally being able to trust his surgically-repaired right knee.

Travis: Would it surprise you to learn Schwellenbach has been better than Skenes since July 1? I don’t think there’s been enough talk about how good he’s been, especially considering the lack of experience. He has almost as many major league innings as he does minor and college combined.

Correlations: Do you see the same being true of Judge/Witt and Ohtani/Lindor MVP cases (essentially, any voter that is swayed by defense/WAR in one league would probably do the same in the other?) Therefore, if there are any Witt/Lindor votes, they’d necessarily come from the same ideology/people (ignoring that the actual voters wont vote for both awards)?

Jay Jaffe: There’s enough philosophical variance among individual voters that I don’t think one league’s result necessarily predict the other’s. That said, I think in either case the snazzy and rate counting stats/combos will carry the day, not unlike Acuña over Betts last year in the NL.

Steve O: I don’t subscribe to the theory that the Yankees are uniquely bad at developing bats. Developing bats is difficult. Look at the Reds or Pirates. They’ve been rebuilding for years with high draft picks, and they have developed maybe 3 above average bats between both teams? Or what about the Dodgers? The Dodgers have really only developed Will Smith. Outman, Lux, etc have regressed. Development is difficult.

Jay Jaffe: It does appear that the tide is shifting for Lux, but what’s your window? The Dodgers did draft and develop Bellinger and Verdugo just a couple years before Smith and Lux. They’ve tended to favor pitching (and have done well, even with the injuries).

Guest: Do you think Brenton Doyle’s numbers are replicable next year?

Jay Jaffe: yeah. He’s youngish and his expected stats are pretty much in line with his actual ones. Some solid year-to-year improvement there.

sassy sleuth: have you heard any insider talk/rumblings about the decline of the stl cardinals, as an organization?  i think the lowest attendance in Busch 3’s history is going to be the only thing discussed in September.

Jay Jaffe: their decline is pretty apparent via the naked eye. I saw they recently sent down both Walker and Gorman, who were two well-regarded prospects. They aren’t producing starting pitching, and their seemingly endless supply of hotshot yong outfielders all turn into Dylan Carlson. I don’t know how Moz keeps his job.

Guest: heh, I didn’t realize there was a baseball player named Jim Morrison (the doors were opened for Bonds to pinch hit for him in that suspended game)

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, that was much more exciting when i was 14 and hadn’t decided the Doors frontman was full of shit

Jay Jaffe: (which doesn’t mean they didn’t have some great songs)

Pat: If you take “Hall of Famer” out of Jeremy’s question and make it the greatest living player, is your answer Barry Bonds? Statistically it is, but, not sure how to account for the HGH.

Jay Jaffe: It’s Bonds.

Santaspirt: Pujols over Schmidt? Career wRC+ is similar (slight edge to Schmidt) without taking into account WAR and defense/position (huge edge to Schmidt). Or did I read your response wrong?

Jay Jaffe: They’re pretty close in WAR (edge Schmidt by about 5 wins) but the big-picture historical factors — the multiple championships and MVPs, the 700/3,000 combo — I think tilt the needle towards Pujols.

DBacks Heater: How sustainable are the DBacks as the #1 park adjusted offense? .276/.351/.472 triple slash for everyone since June 1 seems unsustainable, but that comes with 9.2% BB%, 19.3% K%, and .311 BABIP; none of that seems too crazy

Jay Jaffe: The big thing that makes that (127 wRC+) tough to maintain is the loss of Marte and the effects on his play (if any) when he returns. It’s the regression of the .311 BABIP that will take them down.

BobbyP: Saw a post about the Reds’ future and fit for Soto (and that park!). Do you think players on HoF track (Harper, Machado) look at personal milestones at all or the best are just looking for a successful team when they hit FA?

Jay Jaffe: I think the biggest driver is a combination of money, likelihood of success with that team ,and the desirability of that region given the specifics of background, family, and other concerns, with personal milestones probably pretty far down the list.

TomBruno23: Did I see the last pitcher to get to 200 wins last September at Busch Stadium? As in, will it ever happen again?

Jay Jaffe: I think Gerrit Cole has a pretty good shot, and that we’ll get a trickle of others given a confluence of positive circumstances (continued health for Sale, more seasons like this for Nola/Wheeler)

Richard: Is Bill White a name you expect to see on this year’s Classic Era committee ballot? Wondering if he’s given special consideration since he’s still around and in his 90’s.

Jay Jaffe: No. White was on last year’s Contemporary Era Managers/Executives/Umpires ballot, and so that’s the classification in which he’ll remain until the next rejiggering. I was very bummed that he fell short, missing by two votes, because I thought his combination of contributions made him the single most qualified honoree, ahead even of Jim Leyland. Here’s my profile: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-c…

Jay Jaffe: and here’s what I said on MLB Network, about his work as a pioneering broadcaster and executive. If we’re not recognizing this type of individual in the Hall of Fame, then what is the Hall of Fame for?

https://x.com/MLBNow/status/1729587212495241445

NatsFan: How much do you buy into Luis Garcia Jr. going forward? He’s only 24 and looks like he’s finally found some consistency

Jay Jaffe: you said it yourself: he’s 24. Hitting the ball harder (and in the air) in terms of barrel rate if not average EV. Solid gains

jackal: what does the future hold for Dalton Rushing?  Do the Dodgers make him an outfielder?

Jay Jaffe: it seems like they’re going the outfield path, at least until the end of this season, because they have Will Smith in place for a good long while and view Diego Cartaya as the better catcher. Trades could shake things up but they must really like Rushing’s bat enough to view him this way

bringbackpologrounds: Which HOF shortstop does Lindor remind you of most?

Jay Jaffe: Maybe a more durable, switch-hitting Barry Larkin

Guest: Would you vote for Judge right now as a hall of famer considering his war7 and pretty good JAWs?

Jay Jaffe: 50 JAWS? yeah, considering I voted for Sheffield (49.3) three times

birds birds birds: Got a couple Hall of Very Good players that you wish were just a little better so you could really argue they belong in the HOF, just because you like them?

Jay Jaffe: Fernando Valenzuela would be one of them

Jay Jaffe: There are a whole bunch of other starters I think might be worthy (Cone, Hershiser, Stieb, and Santana, for example).

Steve O: The last 5ish years was my window. Sorry, I should’ve clarified. So Bellinger wouldn’t be in that group. But my point was that it’s not unique to the Yankees.

Jay Jaffe: Appreciate the clarification, thanks

Colton: Oneil Cruz being moved to CF for the last month of the season feels odd to me. My guess is that it’s to see how it takes to it for next year, but isn’t that what Spring Training is for as well? Give him the offseason to work on the transition and come into the spring ready to play it. Just odd timing in my opinion. Have any thoughts on the move or timing yourself?

Jay Jaffe: it’s a chance to give him game activity and on-the-job training at a time when there’s no playoff position at stake, then give him the winter and spring to fine-tune.

Jay Jaffe: They must really like IKF at shortstop

Dirk Funk: The Brewers are an MLB best +58 wins versus the Depth Charts over the seven completed full seasons in the database. They’ve beaten their FIP in each of those seven seasons to the tune of a -0.21 cumulative differential from 2016-23. It’s not just the last two years, it’s been going on for over 1,200 games now.

Jay Jaffe: that’s still only one team (but yes, thanks for digging out the longer-term comparison). I suggest asking Dan about the FIP/ERA projection stuff but my hunch is that the two are closely coupled for projection purposes.

Travis: Why not a Randy Johnson or Greg Maddux for greatest living hall of famer? Do you put pitchers under a different category?

Jay Jaffe: I was thinking more in terms of position players but you’re right, it’s fair to include the pitchers as well, and both are right in that 100-ish WAR ballpark with Schmidt and Pujols.

NotMyName: Is it feasible for the Astros to keep both Bregman(FA after this season) and Tucker(FA after next season)or will they have to pick one?  If only one, who do you prioritize and why?

Jay Jaffe: I’d go Tucker, primarily due to age and secondarily because Bregman hasn’t been close to what he was during the period when the Astros were stealing signs

MxCokoko: This is a rather absurd question, but as a Sox fan, what’s your opinion on Andrew Benintendi, and the potential that the next three years for him may hold? I know ZiPS projects him to be a 1.5ish WAR player on average for that timeframe, but do you place your faith in those projections (and those kind of projections as a whole)?

Jay Jaffe: I think it was a bad contract then and it looks worse now. I’d consider chewing a limb off to save that kind of money.

Ray Manzarek: You can’t hide in Brooklyn forever.  The Lizard King will find you.

Jay Jaffe: legit LOL

Jay Jaffe: Manzarek is the best Door.

NotMyName: Should the Astros consider playing Yanier Diaz more at 1B in the years ahead to preserve his body?  His framing is literally graded as garbage but he can clearly hit.  Seems like a dual role as a 1B/C/occasional DH might be the best route for him and the Astros

Jay Jaffe: We’ve seen enough swings in framing value to know that players can be trained to improve so I wouldn’t shut the door on him catching full-time yet. The Astros do need a full-time 1B but that should be regarded as a separate issue.

Smiling Politely: Re: Dodgers not developing hitters, Corey Seager would like a word, as would Michael Busch (heck, Luke Raley might even count). Now with Lux, I want to be optimistic, but he’s still not starting against lefties, so my excitement has a lower ceiling than it otherwise would

Jay Jaffe: the timeframe point from Steve O rules out Seager, but you’re right about those other two in that they were major league ready but the Dodgers didn’t have room for them

Not Sure: Jay how long do you figure the trio of Verlander, Scherzer, and Kershaw keep pitching?

Jay Jaffe: i bet 2025 will be the end for at least one of them and probably more

Jay Jaffe: Ok folks, thanks for stopping by! That was fun and I’ll try to stretch my streak to two weeks in a row next week. Enjoy the long weekend and stay safe.